매크로 스윙 트레이딩 1 > 트레이딩

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작성자 알파헌터 작성일2022-07-07 12:23

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필자가 2009년에 내놓은 책의 제목이다. 그 책은 서브프라임 모기지 위기 이후의 세계가 어떻게 되는가를 전망하는 것이 목적이었는데 잘 되었는지 모르겠고 책 제목은 출판사가 이미 정해 놓았고 바꿀 수 없다고 해서 그대로 되었다. 그런데 트레이딩에 관한 책이 아니고 필자 자신은 트레이딩에 관한 책을 낼 생각이 없었지만 매크로 트레이딩이라 제목을 달았기 때문에 트레이딩에 관한 내용을 추가해 달라고 해서 일단 급조해서 추가를 하기는 했다. 


http://www.yes24.com/Product/Goods/5373934 


200일 이동 평균선을 이용한 트레이딩이 그것인데 이건 너무 단순한 것이라 트레이딩 비법이라 하기는 그랬지만 일단 그렇게 해서 출간을 하기는 했다.


그래서 그 부족함을 메우기 위해 매크로 트레이딩에 관해서 글을 쓰려고 한다. 오늘은 그 첫번째 글이다.


매크로 트레이딩이란 무엇인가?


경제학과에 입학하면 매크로 이커너믹스와 마이크로 이커너믹스를 배운다. 한국 말로는 거시경제학 미시경제학이다. 미시경제학은 주로 수요와 공급에 대해서 배운다. 거시경제학은 총수요 총공급 성장율 IS-LM 곡선 국제경제 환율 등을 배운다.


트레이딩과 연관해서는 마이크로 이커너믹스를 활용하는 것은 개별 기업들의 주가를 거래할 때 유용할 것이다. 


매크로 이커너믹스는 주로 환율 채권 금리 등의 거시경제 지표들을 거래할 때 유용할 것이다. 주식도 개별 기업이 아니라 전체 시장 즉 주가지수 또는 각 섹터 전체를 거래할 때 유용할 것이다.


그래서 매크로 트레이딩이란 무엇인가 하면 주로 인덱스를 거래하는 것이다. 인덱스란 무엇인가 하면 어떤 특정 지표를 거래할 수 있게 설계한 것인데 가령 주가지수 환율 채권금리 유가 곡물 등을 표상하는 지표를 표준화한 것이다. 이 인덱스를 거래하는 방법은 과거에는 주로 선물 등을 통해서 했다. 


환율이나 금리 스왑은 크게 예외인데 선물 시장보다는 환율이나 스왑을 거래하는 주체가 은행 들이다 보니 은행들 간에 인터뱅크 시장을 통해 거래하는게 주고 선물 시장은 규모 면에서 크게 뒤진다.


그런데 최근에는 ETF가 발달해서 인터뱅크 시장이나 선물 시장을 통하지 않고도 매크로 인덱스 들을 거래하는게 가능해졌다. 그러나 옵션 등을 이용한 좀 더 전문적인 거래를 하기 위해서는 역시 선물 시장에 접근할 필요가 있을 것이다.


선물 시장


만일 한국의 매크로 거래를 하고자 한다면 KRX에 코스피 주가지수 선물, 국채 선물, 원달러 선물 등이 상장되어 있다. 거래량도 충분하다. 코스피 선물의 경우 부수하는 옵션 시장이 있으며 유동성은 세계 최고 급이다. 


한국 이외의 마켓도 많지만 가장 거래가 많고 큰 시장은 미국 시카고에 있는 CME다. 이곳에서는 미국의 주가지수 채권 환율 등 거의 대부분의 인덱스를 거래할 수 있다. 옵션은 한국보다는 유동성이 떨어지지만 마켓 메이커가 있어 거래하는데 지장이 없는 편이다.





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